In a few short hours, Nevada Democrats will start caucusing, so it’s time for FiveThirtyEight to freeze its forecast to get a final look at where things stand prior to Nevada’s vote. That means no new information will be added and that candidates’ odds won’t update until after the caucus results are available — hopefully tonight, if another Iowa-esque disaster can be avoided.
First, here’s what our model says about the candidates’ chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates overall going into Nevada. Sen. Bernie Sanders enters today as the front-runner, with around a 2 in 5 (39 percent) shot at winning a delegate majority. However, there’s a slightly higher chance — 2 in 5, or 41 percent — that no single candidate wins a majority of pledged delegates by the time primary voting wraps up on June 6.
A few days after that entertaining debate in Las Vegas (Mike Bloomberg is still recovering), the Nevada Caucus has arrived. Follow all the results below. Let's hope it goes more smoothly than Iowa.
After that, former Vice President Joe Biden and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg are the candidates with the next-best chance of winning a majority, but they’ve each got only about a 1 in 12 shot. (And it’s important to note that we still have very little polling conducted after Wednesday’s debate in Las Vegas; if that helped or hurt anyone’s chances — we’re thinking of you, Bloomberg — then it’s not fully reflected in these numbers yet.) Lastly, both former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren each has about a 1 in 100 chance of winning a majority.
But today, of course, is about Nevada specifically, so let’s dig into what our model has to say about the Silver State. The forecast gives Sanders about a 6 in 7 (85 percent) shot at winning the most votes in Nevada — based on the final vote after realignment — making him far and away the favorite to win today’s vote. But as always, we should be prepared for surprises, especially in a caucus state. Nevada is notoriously difficult to poll, and, as mentioned, there just haven’t been as many polls there as there were in Iowa or New Hampshire, especially high-quality polls. So while Sanders is favored, there’s still about a 1 in 7 chance that someone else wins. Maybe it’s Buttigieg, who has about a 1 in 15 (6 percent) chance; or Biden, who has about a 1 in 20 (5 percent) shot; or Warren, whose chances are 1 in 50 (2 percent). We also can’t totally write off billionaire activist Tom Steyer (1 in 100, or 0.6 percent) or Sen. Amy Klobuchar (<1 in 100, or 0.5 percent).
In total, seven polls have been conducted of Nevada since the New Hampshire primary,Although one of them, a Beacon Research poll conducted for Steyer’s campaign, doesn’t figure into our model because it’s an internal poll.
'>1But here’s what those surveys show, from most recent to oldest:
It isn’t a poll of Nevada, but we do have one survey from the aftermath of Wednesday night’s debate: a one-day national poll from Morning Consult. The survey found Bloomberg down 3 points compared with the pollster’s pre-debate poll. Of course, Bloomberg isn’t on the ballot in Nevada, but it’s a reminder that things could have shifted on the ground in the state after the debate, and this could have (direct or indirect) effects on the other candidates. Both Sanders (who led overall) and Warren ticked up slightly in the Morning Consult poll, for instance, although neither candidate’s improvement was outside the margin of error.
Bottom line: According to the polls we do have, Sanders is in a pretty solid position to win Nevada. Yet there’s enough uncertainty surrounding the result — particularly as Nevada is a caucus state — to leave the door open for an unexpected outcome. But even if the expected happens and Sanders wins, his margin of victory and who finishes second will also influence each candidate’s odds of winning a majority of pledged delegates in our overall forecast. So no matter what happens today, make sure to join us on our live blog as we monitor each twist and turn in the Silver State.